Forecast discussion 20070806 -1910Z

000
FXUS64 KOHX 061910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
210 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER NE/IA/NRN IL. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF WEAK CONVECTION
NOTED ON RADAR.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
LOWER PLAINS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRI. AN H5 SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRI. AS A RESULT...
THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH A TROUGH POSITION SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST BY SUN AS THE H5 RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY MON AFTN. A WEAK FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDSTATE LATE FRI WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND.

MORE BAD NEWS...CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PROGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP. SO UNLESS
THERE IS A NICE WET LITTLE TROPICAL STORM IN OUR FUTURE
(PLEASE NO HURRICANES) THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HERE TO STAY.

MOS TEMPS WERE FAILY CLOSE WITH MOS POPS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 77 99 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 74 99 74 99 / 10 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 70 92 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 76 99 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 75 99 74 99 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 75 99 74 99 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ005>009-022>029-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

JLM