NWS Taunton Discussion BOSAFDBOX

0015Z -Short term (overnight and Tuesday): Not many changes needed to the forecast, but we will send an update later this evening to freshen up overnight wording. We are continuing to lean more toward eta with remnants of jeanne since gfs appears to be hanging on to a mid level vorticity max too long.

High cloud shield will dominate overnight, while at same time S to SE flow also brings in some low cloudiness before daybreak. Eta cross sections show quite a bit of stratus development which May be overdone, but either way it will be cloudy overnight. Expect rain to reach much of CT and RI around daybreak and quickly spread into Northern MA and Southern NH by mid morning Tue. Main shot of rain should occur from late morning into mid afternoon as the surface low passes SE of New England.

Total rainfall should average 1 to 2 inches with the greatest amounts in RI and SE MA. Flooding is not a concern aside from the usual minor urban and poor drainage problems.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday):
Remnants of jeanne will be at her closest to New England late Tuesday. As the storm moves out to sea the rain will end quickly Tuesday evening with clearing skies for Wednesday. Thereafter a large and cool high pressure area builds into the region, Passing overhead Thursday night and Friday. A cold front moves in Friday night and Saturday, Followed by another large cool high pressure area for the weekend and into next week.

0050Z Temperatures will be around 12ºC tonight, falling to around 8º Wednesday, and zero to +5ºC for later this weekend.

Aviation:
Vfr conditions this evening will give way to mvfr ceilings and visibilities before daybreak from areas of fog and low clouds, Especially around S coast. Eta cross sections actually show ifr ceilings becoming widespread toward daybreak, But this appears to be overdone and we were more confident in mvfr ceilings occurring. however ifr conditions should prevail Tue morning as the rain arrives with areas of lifr ceilings and visibilities in heavier rain. 00Z tafs were more pessimistic than guidance in showing improvement late Tue afternoon, Keeping mvfr ceilings into the evening. Expect vfr conditions to return 00z-06z Wed.

Benign conditions on the waters tonight. Buoys still reporting long period swells of around 10 seconds, But seas at or below 4 feet. Seas and winds on the increase Tuesday as the remnants of tropical storm jeanne pass by to the south of New England.

Winds and seas will still be up Tuesday night, slowly subsiding as we go into the later part of the week. Seas May actually increase Wednesday over the sea heights Tuesday as jeanne moves by, and northwest winds increase in the colder air moving in, to increase seas.

Box watches/warnings/advisories:
CT, None.
MA, None.
NH, None.
RI, None.
marine, None.